Time to shift focus to the second legs of eight mouthwatering Champions League fixtures. All six English teams came up short in the first leg - will that bite them this week? Meanwhile, Bayern Munich are sweating it out without four of their senior goalkeepers. Luckily, they’ve got a comfortable 6-1 lead, but we’ll dive into that too. Here’s our preview, starting with our picks:
Our Picks:
League | Fixture | Best Odds | Bet |
UCL | Chelsea vs. Paris Saint-Germain | PSG Over 1.5 Goals | |
UCL | Manchester City vs. Real Madrid | Real Madrid Over 0.5 Goals | |
UCL | Arsenal vs. Leverkusen | Under 3.5 Goals | |
UCL | Sporting vs. FK Bodø/Glimt | Over 2.5 Goals | |
UCL | Barcelona vs. Newcastle United | Barcelona 1UP | |
UCL | Tottenham Hotspur vs. Atletico Madrid | Over 2.5 Total Goals | |
UCL | Liverpool vs. Galatasaray | Victor Osimhen Anytime Scorer | |
UCL | Bayern Munich vs. Atalanta | Both Teams to Score |
Total Odds: 49.58 | Booking Code: 7A2CBG | Acca Bonus: 10%
Chelsea vs. Paris Saint-Germain (Agg: 2-5)
Chelsea need something close to a miracle at Stamford Bridge if they’re going to turn this tie around. The Blues trail 5-2 from the first leg after being blown away in the final 30 minutes in Paris, where a game that was level at 2-2 suddenly ran away from them. The turning point was Luis Enrique introducing Khvicha Kvaratskhelia in the 62nd minute; the Georgian set up Vitinha before scoring twice himself in a devastating cameo.
History isn’t exactly on Chelsea’s side either. Only once in Champions League history has a team overturned a three-goal first-leg deficit against the holders - Deportivo La Coruña’s famous comeback against AC Milan in 2004. Chelsea also comes into this second leg in shaky form, losing three of their last five games in all competitions, including a 1-0 defeat to Newcastle at the weekend.
PSG, meanwhile, arrive in London well-rested and confident. They’ve won four of their last five Champions League games against English sides and are unbeaten in their last five against them (W4 D1). Under Enrique, they’ve won 66.7% of their knockout matches.
The Parisians carry plenty of attacking threat too. They already have 13 different goalscorers in this season’s competition, while Kvaratskhelia has averaged a goal or assist every 63 minutes.
Our bet of the day: PSG to score over 1.5 goals in this game. We have the best odds for this (2.00) which gives you a chance to double your betting stake. Chelsea will take some encouragement from Enzo Fernández – their most productive player in Europe this season (3 goals, 2 assists). But with injuries and a Pedro Neto suspension, the Blues likely need early goals just to make this interesting.
Betting Tips:
Manchester City vs. Real Madrid (Agg: 0-3)
Manchester City face a huge task heading into the second leg after hat-trick hero Federico Valverde laid the smackdown in their 3–0 defeat to Real Madrid. History isn’t exactly on their side as well. Madrid have won the first leg of a European knockout tie by three or more goals 36 times, and no team has ever overturned that deficit against them.
Recent head-to-heads also favour the Spanish giants. City have lost three of their last four Champions League meetings with Madrid, and the Spanish side have already knocked them out four times in the competition.
For our online betting community, the first leg offered a big indicator: Madrid restricted City to just 8 shots and 0.59 xG, their lowest attacking output in this season’s tournament. Even more surprising, Erling Haaland failed to register a single shot, something that had only happened once before in his Champions League career.
With City needing to chase the game and Pep Guardiola historically struggling to overturn first-leg defeats, this could open the door for another high-tempo, chance-filled encounter.
Betting Tips:
Arsenal vs. Bayer Leverkusen (Agg: 1-1)
Arsenal welcomes Leverkusen to the Emirates with the tie finely balanced after a 1–1 first-leg draw in Germany. The Gunners looked set to lose before Kai Havertz converted a late penalty against his former club, putting Arsenal in a decent position heading into the return leg.
History slightly favours the hosts. Arsenal are unbeaten against Leverkusen in the Champions League (W1 D2) and have progressed from 17 of the last 20 knockout ties when avoiding defeat in the first leg away from home. Their Emirates record in Europe is also excellent under Mikel Arteta - 13 wins from 16 UCL home games, with only Paris Saint-Germain grabbing a victory there.
Leverkusen, though, remains dangerous. They’ve lost just once in their last 14 matches, even if draws have become a habit recently. Although, I must say, I was disappointed they weren’t able to take all 3 points from Bayern Munich this past weekend despite the latter being reduced to 9-men.
With Arsenal strong at home but Leverkusen tough to beat, the online sports betting folks may want to look at tight margins, goals at both ends, or Arsenal edging it.
Betting Tips:
Sporting vs. FK Bodø/Glimt (Agg: 0-3)
Bodø/Glimt’s UCL fairytale run continued last week as they stunned Sporting in Norway. A 3-0 win made it 5 in a row in this competition for them, leaving Sporting CP with a mountain to climb in the second leg.
At home, though, Sporting have been perfect in Europe this season, winning all four matches at Estádio José Alvalade. Historically, they’ve also beaten Norwegian sides in all three home meetings, keeping a clean sheet every time. That gives some hope for bettors eyeing a home win or goals market.
Still, Bodø/Glimt arrives in Lisbon flying and that cannot be overlooked. They’ve also won all three European meetings with Portuguese clubs, including wins over FC Porto and S.C. Braga.
Keep an eye on Kasper Høgh (5 UCL goals) and Jens Petter Hauge, who has 6 goal involvements in his last 6 games. Also, There have been 3 or more goals scored in total in each of Bodø/Glimt's last 10 away games. Sporting need goals and that could open the door for a lively, high-scoring contest.
Betting Tips:
Barcelona vs. Newcastle United (Agg: 1-1)
Newcastle United are clearly not short on confidence right now. Their recent run of fixtures has been brutal, to put it mildly, but somehow, they’ve come through it looking even stronger. With games against a resurgent Manchester United, Manchester City (FA Cup), Barcelona and Chelsea all packed into the schedule, it’s pretty impressive that they’ve come away with two wins from that stretch. In truth, it easily could have been three if they hadn’t conceded that late penalty against Barcelona. Still, there’s plenty to feel good about, especially with Anthony Gordon, who has quietly become one of the UCL top scorers this season.
The second leg in Spain will test them even more, though. Barcelona are coming off a commanding 5-2 win over Sevilla in LaLiga, a result that helped them maintain their four-point lead over Real Madrid. Raphinha stole the headlines with a hat-trick, but just as important was the fact that all five goals came inside the first 60 minutes, which allowed Barcelona to ease off and conserve energy for the closing stages.
Newcastle’s biggest concern heading into this one is Sandro Tonali’s fitness. The Italian midfielder picked up a bug over the weekend and missed the trip to Stamford Bridge because of it. If he isn’t cleared in time for this match, it could cause real problems for the Magpies in midfield.
Even so, it’s difficult to look beyond a Barcelona win here. They simply have more individual quality, and in what’s likely to be a tight, tense game, that extra bit of class could make all the difference. Having won their last 14 home matches in a row, it’s hard to bet against that, but we’ll play it safe and go the 1UP route.
Betting Tips:
Tottenham Hotspur vs. Atletico Madrid (Agg: 2-5)
Tottenham had a draw that felt much like a win on Sunday evening at Anfield. In a game they expected to lose heavily, they kept things close and were rewarded with a late equalizer by Richarlison. Now, they head back to their stadium needing a miracle after a 5–2 first-leg defeat to Atlético Madrid. The deficit looks massive, but they at least grabbed two away goals to keep the tie faintly alive.
The North Londoners have scored 19 goals in 10 Champions League matches (1.9 per game) but their form is worrying - five straight defeats and goals conceded in bunches. Recent home games have also been chaotic, with over 2.5 total goals landing in 8 of their last 10 at home.
Atlético have all the momentum, thanks to wins over Real Sociedad, Spurs, and Getafe. Interestingly, though, their Champions League away form isn’t great - just one win in their last six, conceding 15 goals in that stretch.
For bettors, the trends scream goals. 23 of Atlético’s last 24 UCL games have gone over 2.5 goals, and several recent matches have even cleared over 4.5 goals. With Tottenham forced to attack and Atlético lethal on the counter, this could easily turn into another high-scoring contest.
Betting Tips:
Liverpool vs. Galatasaray (Agg: 0-1)
Liverpool fans were left frustrated on Sunday night after a disappointing home draw against a shorthanded Spurs side. It was the third time in four games across all competitions that they failed to win, following defeats to Wolves and Galatasaray in the first leg. Even more concerning is that the loss to Galatasaray was already their second against the Turkish side this season, having also gone down to them during the league phase. Now it’s a must-win night at Anfield for the Reds, but it doesn’t feel like it’ll be straightforward.
Galatasaray are riding a wave of momentum. They’ve won five straight games in all competitions, including a comfortable 3-0 victory over İstanbul Başakşehir over the weekend. That result pushed them seven points clear at the top of the Turkish Super Lig with eight matches left, putting them firmly on track to retain the title.
Our very own Victor Osimhen was among the goals again, bringing his league tally to 12 in 19 appearances. In the Champions League, he’s scored seven in nine games, although six of those came in his first three outings and he’s managed just one in the last six. He’ll be keen to change that, especially against a Liverpool side that can be vulnerable when the pressure is on. Just as important, though, is the opportunity to reach the quarterfinals.
Liverpool clearly have the quality, no doubt about that, but they’ve struggled in the biggest games this season. After already upsetting Juventus in the playoff round, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Galatasaray pull off another surprise here.
Betting Tips:
Bayern Munich vs. Atalanta (Agg: 1-6)
Bayern Munich must be breathing a sigh of relief over their big lead in this tie, because their goalkeeper situation is straight-up crazy. With Manuel Neuer (calf), Sven Ulreich (abductor), Jonas Urbig (concussion), and Leon Klanac (hamstring) all sidelined, the Bavarians are down to their fifth-choice keeper for the home leg against Atalanta. Their only option now is to dip into the youth ranks - 16-year-old Leonard Prescott (who’s already been on the bench in the Champions League) or 19-year-old Jannis Bärtl will probably get the nod. The aim will be to keep the damage to no more than four unanswered goals. Sounds doable at home, right?
Honestly, this tie is basically wrapped. Overturning a 6-1 deficit, especially away from home, is nearly impossible. Sure, an early goal from Atalanta might add some drama, but beyond that, Bayern should be fine to coast through.
Betting Tips:
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