With just over a month remaining until AFCON 2024, excitement is building among football fans across the continent, and our online sports betting community is already fully immersed in it. 17 of the 24 qualified teams are returning, having competed in Cameroon 2021. This includes record winners Egypt, Morocco, who reached the semi-finals of the FIFA World Cup, and Nigeria, entering the tournament with arguably the richest attacking options. Mozambique is also making a return for the first time since the 2010 edition, while 2012 champions Zambia are back for the first time since 2015. In this piece, we’ll explore where the best value for money may lie ahead of the tournament, sharing a few betting tips along the way.
**Group Winners** As usual, the barrier to entry for the Round of 16 stage of this competition is lower than you would find in other international tournaments. The top two teams from each of the six groups will progress directly to the round of 16, with the remaining four spots determined by the four best third-placed teams. Essentially, a team would have to perform exceptionally poorly to miss out of the knockout stage. But, let’s shift our attention to the probable group winners. Group A has Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, and Guinea-Bissau. Despite Nigeria’s wealth of attacking options, concerns arise about their midfield, defense, and goalkeeper choices. In the last AFCON, they topped their group ahead of eventual finalists Egypt, and we expect them to have a good showing in this group. However, given the problems mentioned, exercising caution is advisable this time. The smart choice would be to lean towards the hosts, Ivory Coast, who boast players like Sébastien Haller, Wilfried Zaha, Ibrahim Sangaré, Franck Kessié, Seko Fofana, Evan Ndicka, Serge Aurier, and the unwavering support of their home fans.
Some groups seem a lot more straightforward than the rest and we’ll be surprised to see a different outcome. These groups have some powerhouses in North Africa, known for their reliability in the early stages of the AFCON. In Group D, we expect 2019 winners Algeria to secure the top spot ahead of Burkina Faso, Mauritania, and Angola. Group E is expected to see Tunisia emerge as the group winner, ahead of Mali and Namibia, although we could see a challenge from South Africa, returning to the tournament after missing the last AFCON edition. Last, in Group F, Morocco is expected to comfortably top DR Congo, Zambia, and Tanzania. Our bet prediction is for these 3 North African sides to top their groups.
Groups B and C will see more intense competition. In Group B, last tournament’s finalists, Egypt will contend with Ghana for the #1 spot, and we expect it to come down to their meeting on Matchday 2. Meanwhile, in Group C, reigning champions Senegal face a challenge from Cameroon, who secured a third place finish in the last edition. Cameroon boasts Vincent Aboubakar, the top scorer from the last edition and they should not be taken lightly.
**Over/Unders Goals** African football is commonly characterised by low-scoring games, and contrary to being a false stereotype, this trend is clear in various competitions, including domestic leagues like the NPFL, friendlies, World Cup qualifiers, and the AFCON itself. For example, take a look at the recent Matchday 2 in the World Cup African Qualifiers where only 5 of 26 games featured Over 2.5 Goals. Examining the goal-scoring patterns in the 2021 Africa Cup of Nations (which was actually played in 2022), 100 goals were scored across 52 matches, resulting in an average of 1.92 goals per game. The 2019 AFCON experienced a slightly higher average, with 102 goals scored in 52 matches, translating to 1.96 goals per game. In fact, the goals per game average have seen a consistent decline over the last 15 years in the AFCON, as depicted in the table below:
With this in mind, it feels like a no-brainer to constantly go for Under 2.5 Goals in most matches and, perhaps, Under 1.5 Goals when two evenly matched teams are on the pitch, and BetKing will constantly have the high odds for this prop.
**“Both Teams To Score” Markets** Given the low-scoring nature of the AFCON tournament, it’s unsurprising that the “Both Teams To Score” (BTTS) market doesn’t yield the most rewarding outcomes. In the 2021 edition held in Cameroon, only 14 out of the 36 Group Stage games witnessed both teams scoring, accounting for a measly 38.89%. During the knockout stages, this percentage increased slightly to 43.75%, with only 7 out of the 16 games featuring both sides scoring. Overall, the BTTS prop proved successful in just 21 of the 52 games, amounting to a 40.38% success rate. While it’s challenging to predict which specific games will see this market play out, the statistics suggest that the group stage is more likely to feature more clean sheets. As the tournament progresses to the knockout stages, where the quality of teams typically rises, there should be more instances of both teams scoring.
**Rewarding Scorelines** By now you must have guessed that historically, the most rewarding scorelines in the AFCON are the 0-0 and 1-0 scorelines. In the 2021 edition of the tournament, 15 out of the 52 matches concluded with a 1-0 scoreline, while 8 matches ended in a goalless draw. This signifies that a combined total of 23 out of the 52 matches resulted in either a 1-0 or 0-0 score, accounting for a high 44.23%. For bettors who favour this market, there appears to be a considerable value for money hidden here.
**Golden Boot Winner** Many thrilling attackers will take part in this AFCON. Unfortunately, injuries have deprived us of some, as seen with Taiwo Awoniyi, but hopefully, that’s the last player we get robbed of seeing. Vincent Aboubakar was the leading scorer in the last AFCON, netting an impressive eight goals for the host nation, Cameroon, and leading them to a third-place finish. This goal tally places Aboubakar in the joint-second position for the highest goals scored in an AFCON edition, a record he shares with Ivory Coast’s Laurent Pokou (1970). Only Ndaye Mulamba has scored more, a feat the late striker achieved in the 1974 edition where his 9 goals helped Zaire win the title. Vincent Aboubakar will want to retain the title but he’ll face stiff competition from Morocco’s Youssef En-Nesyri who has been in fine form for Sevilla this season. After scoring twice for Morocco at the World Cup including the winning goal against Portugal in the quarter-final to send his country to their first ever semi-final, he scored 6 goals to help Sevilla win the Europa League. Mo Salah (Egypt) is also expected to throw his name into the hat, especially as he will be on penalty and free-kick duties. Keep an eye on Sadio Mané (Senegal) and Sébastien Haller (Ivory Coast) who have played at the highest level of football, and whose respective countries are expected to make deep runs. The overwhelming favourite, however, is Nigeria’s Victor Osimhen. During the qualifiers for this tournament, Osimhen outshone all other players by scoring 10 goals—five more than second top scorer, Sadio Mané. Osimhen has been an outstanding scorer for the Super Eagles, with 20 goals in just 27 appearances. With his sights set on surpassing Rashidi Yekini’s national team record of 37 goals and having missed the last tournament due to injury, Osimhen aims to leave an indelible mark in this competition by clinching the AFCON Golden Boot—a feat Yekini achieved twice in his illustrious career.
**Tournament Winner** As with all AFCON editions, there are 4-8 teams with a realistic chance of winning the tournament. Ghana and Tunisia may not be the scariest teams on the continent, but they’re well equipped to beat any team especially in a single-elimination tie. Similarly, Algeria and Nigeria boast impressive attacking options but have vulnerabilities in other areas. Cameroon, having clinched the 2019 edition and securing a third-place finish on home soil in the last edition, cannot be dismissed. Ivory Coast holds the significant advantage of hosting, making them a formidable contender that should not be underestimated.
The three teams demanding attention, however, are Egypt, Senegal, and Morocco. 7-time winners, Egypt will be vying for a record-extending 8th title in this tournament when they land in Ivory Coast. Despite not winning an AFCON title for over a decade since their three consecutive victories between 2006 and 2010, their aspirations remain high. Bolstered by the brilliance of Mo Salah, they have reached the final in two of the last three editions, though emerging as runners-up. Evidently, the talent is abundant; all they require is that stroke of luck to clinch the title. As reigning champions, Senegal needs no introduction. They showcased defensive brilliance in the last edition, keeping five clean sheets in seven games and conceding a mere two goals throughout the entire tournament.
The co-favorites in the betting arena are Morocco. Following their exceptional FIFA World Cup performance, where they achieved the unprecedented feat of becoming the first African country to reach the semi-finals, they will be motivated to build on that success. In the eight matches played since the World Cup, they suffered only one defeat, while securing victories in four games, including a notable 2-1 triumph over Brazil. Their defensive prowess is evident, having kept five clean sheets in these eight games, a crucial element for success at the AFCON. Over the past 18 months, they have asserted themselves as the top-performing African country, and this tournament presents an opportunity to translate their excellence into tangible silverware. With their sole AFCON title dating back to 1976, they undoubtedly feel that success is long overdue, and we have the best odds for a Morocco win compared to other betting sites.
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