The run-in period in a league season is the most crucial phase, or the “business end”, like I like to call it. This is where the culmination of months of hard work, strategy, and performance ultimately decides the fate of teams. It’s the last stretch where every point gained or lost can significantly impact a team’s position in the league table, determining championship titles, European qualifications, or relegation battles. The pressure is immense, and the mental fortitude of players and managers alike is put to the test. Remember those classic Usain Bolt 100 meter races where his fellow competitors were pretty much level with him for the first 40 - 50 meters, but then he ALWAYS pulled away in the final 30 meters? Think of the run-In as those final 30 meters in a 100 meter race. Historically, some teams have faltered under this pressure, crumbling when it mattered most. These teams often exhibit signs of fatigue, nerves, or both, leading to crucial mistakes on the pitch. One such example is Liverpool during the 2013/14 season. Despite leading the table for most of the season, they faltered in the run-in, dropping points in crucial EPL matches and ultimately finishing second to Manchester City. Steven Gerrard’s unfortunate slip against Chelsea is still fresh in the minds of the Anfield faithful as the ultimate “what if” moment. Just last season, Arsenal, who had led the league for 93% of the season, suffered a similar collapse in the run-in, with Manchester City stepping in to snatch the title from their hands. Conversely, there are teams renowned for their ruthlessness during the run-in, consistently delivering under pressure. Manchester United under Sir Alex Ferguson was legendary for their ability to grind out results when it mattered most. Their mental resilience and tactical adaptability often saw them through challenging fixtures, securing crucial points to clinch multiple league titles. 13, to be precise. The one time they crumbled in the run-in was the 2011/12 season where Manchester City won it on a dramatic final day, courtesy Sergio Aguero’s iconic late winner. Come to think of it, it seems any time a team bottles it in the run-in, Manchester City is often waiting in the wings to capitalize. Hmmm. With 11 games left till the end of the season, let’s look at how each team could fare in the run-in. For this exercise, we’ll look at their final 7 games.
**Liverpool** Liverpool have witnessed their fair share of injuries this season, yet they’ve navigated through the tricky bits admirably thus far. Looking at their last 7 games, there are still some potential pitfalls. The game at Old Trafford could be a tricky one, especially considering it comes just weeks after they both meet in the FA Cup. While Liverpool have dominated this fixture in recent years, their 7-0 win at Anfield is their sole win over Erik ten Hag. The Dutchman handed them a 2-1 loss when they last visited Old Trafford. Also, when both teams met at Anfield earlier this season, it ended in a goalless draw. Two other fixtures that could prove tough are the games against Spurs and Aston Villa, as both sides will be vying for a Top Four finish to guarantee a spot in next season’s Champions League. Spurs beat Liverpool when they both met earlier this season, albeit controversially due to a terrible VAR error. The Reds did however, comfortably beat Aston Villa 3-0 at Anfield, but Unai Emery’s boys could be itching for revenge. Jurgen Klopp’s announcement that he would be stepping down at the end of the season has injected the team with added motivation. This surge in momentum has translated into success, with the Reds clinching the EFL Cup, leading the Premier League, and aiming to become the first English team to achieve the quadruple. While this feat is undoubtedly challenging, one of our betting tips for today is that Liverpool will secure at least one more title this season.
**Manchester City** On paper, the reigning Champions have the easiest run-in, but, honestly, it doesn’t really matter who is in front of them. Since Pep Guardiola’s arrival in England during the 2016/17 season, his team has consistently ended each season on a high note. In his debut season, they won four out of their last five league matches, with one draw. This impressive streak was replicated the following season, culminating in winning the league title with an unprecedented 100 points. The trend continued into the 2018/19 season, where they clinched victory in all five of their final matches, narrowly edging out Liverpool to secure the title by one point. Despite relinquishing the title to Liverpool in the subsequent “Lockdown Season”, Manchester City still closed out their campaign with a five-game winning streak. The sole exception to this pattern came in the 2020/21 season, where they won three and suffered two defeats in their last five league outings. However, their comfortable 12-point lead over second place Manchester United meant they could afford to ease off. Two seasons ago, facing fierce competition from Liverpool, City finished with four wins and a draw in their final five games to retain the title. Last season, they drew one and lost one of their last two games, a run preceded by three straight wins. However, since those three wins were enough for them to win the title over Arsenal before the final two matchdays, the dropped points were inconsequential. Across the 35 matches in the run-in since Guardiola’s arrival, they have won 28, suffering just three losses. This remarkable 80% win rate during the crucial closing stages of the season stands head and shoulders above any other team in the league over that period. It is our football prediction that they will maintain a similar win rate in this season’s run-in which would virtually guarantee them another title. Also, with Phil Foden in the form of his life, as well as Erling Haaland, one of the EPL top scorers, they should do so in style.
**Arsenal** Arsenal have the toughest run-in on paper, though with the way they’ve been playing lately, they could make light work of it. On Matchday 37, they travel to Old Trafford, a ground where they’ve picked up just one league win since 2007. They’ll also make the cross-town trip to face neighbours, Spurs in the North London derby; a tough tie. Then there’s the highly anticipated Arsenal vs. Aston Villa match at the Emirates where they’ll welcome familiar faces, Emi Martinez, and Unai Emery, both eager to spoil the Gunners’ party, but more importantly pick up points in their bid to secure a top four finish. These three opponents have top four aspirations and could be extra motivated, providing a tougher test than usual for the Gunners. Arsenal can, however, rely on several advantages as they approach the crucial stage of the season. Since the beginning of the year, they have shown significant improvements in both defense and attack. In 2024, they conceded just 6 goals in 9 games while scoring a jaw-dropping 31 goals. Currently boasting the healthiest Goal Difference (+45), they have a strong buffer if needed. Furthermore, the return to training of Arsenal’s new signing Jurien Timber, who was injured on the opening day of the season, as well as the return to full fitness of Thomas Partey, provides an additional boost, further strengthening an already solid defense.
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