This weekend, Borussia Dortmund will head to Wembley to face Champions League juggernauts Real Madrid, with hopes of pulling off an upset and taking home the trophy. In this piece, we’ll revisit recent European finals and see what we can learn from them. History is a brilliant teacher, so let’s check out some patterns that might help us make smarter bet predictions ahead of this game. Here are some lessons to keep in mind: **Goal Drought By Traditional Strikers in UCL Finals** Over the last few seasons, the Champions League final has had some of the best strikers of our generation. In the past five years alone, we’ve seen stars like Erling Haaland, Karim Benzema, Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé, Robert Lewandowski, and Sergio Aguero take the stage. Other top strikers like Lautaro Martínez, Romelu Lukaku, Edin Džeko, and Roberto Firmino have also made appearances. Yet, despite this talent, there’s been just one goal scored by a traditional #9 in the finals during this period. That lone goal? It came from Divock Origi in 2019. Why this drought for traditional strikers in the Champions League finals? It’s a mystery. Are teams focusing more on shutting down the opposition’s main striker? Is it nerves or just bad luck? It’s tough to pinpoint. This year’s final features Joselu (Real Madrid) and Niclas Füllkrug (Borussia Dortmund) as the traditional strikers - competent players, but not exactly the biggest goal threats. We believe the trend might continue. So, who should we bet on for goals? Wingers, attacking midfielders, and even center-backs (thanks to set-pieces) seem like good options. In the last five years, Mo Salah, Kingsley Coman, and Vinicius Jr. have all found the net in the final, so Wingers like Jadon Sancho, Vinicius Jr. and Rodrygo seem like smart choices here. Karim Adeyemi, who has played as a winger this season, is another good pick. Beyond wingers, Jude Bellingham is a standout. The Englishman has scored 23 goals in 40 games across all competitions and could boost his Ballon d’Or chances with a winning goal in this match.
**Champions League Finals Have Been Low Scoring** Real Madrid has been on fire lately, scoring at least 4 goals in each of their last 3 games. In their last 5 matches, they’ve racked up 18 goals and have found the net in 38 consecutive games. The last time they didn’t score was a goalless draw with Rayo Vallecano back in early November. Dortmund has also been impressive in front of goal, finishing their league season with a 4-0 win at Darmstadt. Despite failing to score in their first two Champions League games against PSG and Milan, they’ve scored in 10 straight Champions League matches since. However, recent history tells us this might mean nothing, and we could have a cagey game at Wembley. Champions League finals haven’t been a goal-fest recently. The last four finals all ended 1-0, and the winners have kept clean sheets in each of the last five finals. The reasons for this are unclear. Thomas Tuchel (Chelsea, 2021) and Simone Inzaghi (Inter, 2023) adopted conservative approaches, which might explain their low-scoring finals against Manchester City, but where does that leave the rest? With Harry Kane barely fit for the 2019 final, Spurs’ chances of scoring were always going to be low. In 2022, fuelled by the criticism he was receiving by the English press, Thibaut Courtois put on a Man of the Match display for Real Madrid as he stopped Liverpool from scoring. That leaves us with 2020 - the pandemic season. Could that be it - the pandemic? That was the first and only Champions League final to be played behind closed doors. So, it came as no surprise when it lacked the intensity we were used to. One of our betting tips today is for this pattern to continue and as usual, we have the best odds for that.
**Over And Under For Corner-kicks** Corner-kicks are a popular market for our community members, so it’s important to approach this with caution. Here’s a breakdown of the corner-kick totals over the last 5 Champions League finals:
These figures show a clear pattern. The Champions League final has seen Under 8.5 Total Corners in each of the last 5 years, except for the 2019 final between Liverpool and Spurs. There could be a lot of reasons for this. My guess is that since the 2019 final featured a goal in the second minute of the game - a penalty by Mo Salah to put Liverpool 1-0 up - it completely changed the game plan for both teams. This early goal meant that Spurs had to be on the offensive from the start, leading to an open game. In contrast, the earliest goal from the four two finals came in the 42nd minute. This meant that for large periods in those finals, the game was even, and both teams were satisfied with their cautious approach. Based on this pattern, and our belief that this final will be low scoring, our bet of the day is:
**Second Halves Produce More Goals** A market that often gets overlooked in the Champions League final is the "highest scoring half" market, and this could be a great opportunity for our online betting community. In the past decade, the second half of Champions League games has seen more goals than the first, which kind of makes sense. The final features the two top teams in Europe, maybe even the world, so the first half tends to be pretty tense and cautious, while the second half usually opens up and sees more action. In the last 10 seasons, the first halves of the Champions League finals have only seen 5 goals combined. In contrast, the second halves have racked up 16 goals, further proving this point. Betting on the "second half to produce more goals" market has paid off in 6 out of those 10 finals, giving it a 60% success rate. The only year where the first half had more goals than the second in this period was the 2021 final between Manchester City and Chelsea, where Kai Havertz’s 42nd-minute winner for the Blues was the decider.
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