With Austria set to take on Türkiye, France facing Belgium, and Switzerland up against Italy, this Round of 16 promises plenty of excitement. And it’s not just this round. With heavyweights like Belgium, France, Portugal, Spain, and Germany all on one side of the bracket, we’re in for a thrilling knockout phase. Now, let’s break down our favourite football predictions, shall we? **Our Picks:**
**Switzerland vs. Italy** **"We don’t want to worry too much about Italy. The truth is the opposite: Italy needs to worry about us."** Those are words from Switzerland’s Head Coach Murat Yakin. Simple, direct, and most importantly, true. The Swiss might have only picked up 5 points in the group stage, but don’t be fooled—they’ve been one of the most well-rounded teams in the tournament. Their draw against Scotland was probably the only blip, as many expected them to win, but a point wasn’t the worst outcome. Their tie with Germany secured them a spot in the knockout stage for the sixth consecutive international tournament since the 2014 World Cup, with only France (at 7) having a longer streak. Italy, on the other hand, hasn’t looked convincing in this tournament. The reigning European champions have fallen behind in all three of their games. They conceded to Albania’s Nedim Bajrami in just 23 seconds - a tournament record - and had to rely on a 90+8 minute equalizer from Mattia Zaccagni to grab a point against Croatia. Adding to their troubles, they’ll be without key defender Riccardo Calafiori, who’s suspended after picking up his second yellow card of the tournament in their last game. The Azzurri will, however, look to history for confidence, as they’re on an 11-game unbeaten run against Switzerland (W5, D6), a streak that goes back 30 years. While we believe the Swiss will pull off an upset in this game, our bet of the day is that it will go to extra-time. Out of Italy’s last 26 knockout matches at major international tournaments, 15 have gone to extra-time, including four of their last five. Having observed how conservative both teams tend to play in big games, we expect that trend to continue.
**England vs. Slovakia** The football gods seem to have given England a break with a relatively easy Round of 16 match against Slovakia. Heading into the last day of the group stage, England had a 61% chance of drawing the Netherlands, but they ended up with Slovakia, who they only had a 16% chance of facing. Slovakia is making it to the knockout phase for only the second time and haven’t gone past the Round of 16 in their history. Unfortunately for England, that’s where the good news ends. By their standards, and quite frankly, by any standard, the Three Lions have been terrible in Euro 2024.with the likes Their 2.19xG ranks 22nd out of 24 teams and is the lowest of any team still left in the competition. With just two goals scored, they’ve only outscored one team—Serbia. Gareth Southgate’s tendency to overcomplicate things seems to have backfired, and things don’t look great for them. [**More on that here**](https://m.betking.com/blog/betting-tips/euro-2024-the-good-the-bad-and-gareth-southgate-s-questionable-approach/). With Slovakia and England ranking 21st and 22nd on xG, we don’t expect this to be a high-scoring game either. While we did say Slovakia was a relatively easy draw, they are still a team capable of causing real damage if given the chance. Their Matchday 1 win over Belgium ended the Red Devils’ 15-game unbeaten run, showing they can take down big names if underestimated. On the bright side for England, they have won 5 of their last 6 games against Slovakia, drawing the other. Slovakia has also been rather unlucky in the knockout stages of international tournaments, getting eliminated in 2010 by the Netherlands (World Cup) and in 2016 by Germany (Euros). As bad as England has looked, we think they’ll win this, but we expect it to be a frustrating low-scoring game.
**Romania vs. Netherlands** Romania came into the tournament on fire. Their 3-0 win over Ukraine on Matchday 1 was crucial for topping Group E. Despite having just 28% possession, completing 71% of their passes, and making less than half the passes of the Ukrainians, they were highly efficient in the attacking third, which made the difference. However, this game plan only worked for one match. They lost 2-0 to Belgium in the next game and had to come from behind to rescue a point against Slovakia on Matchday 3. In many ways, you could say they’ve gotten worse as the tournament has progressed. Still, finishing at the top of their group is no small feat, so maybe we shouldn’t be too hard on them. The Netherlands find themselves in a situation similar to Romania, making this tie even more intriguing. They started the tournament with a 2-1 win over Poland, drew with France on Matchday 2, and then lost to Austria on Matchday 3. While they weren’t expected to top the group, they were penciled in for a second-place finish behind France. However, the loss to Austria dropped them to 3rd place. On the bright side, they avoided a Round of 16 tie with Belgium and also landed on the easier side of the bracket. This game is likely to be closer than most people think, but the Netherlands have the edge due to their star-studded lineup. Also, Romania will be missing Nicusor Bancu, who is suspended, which could be a problem as they lack a left-footed defender going into this game. Keep an eye on Cody Gakpo who is the leading scorer for the Dutch. The Liverpool striker often divides opinion but seems to be in fine form in this tournament, and we’ll likely see them turn to him once more. One of our betting tips for today is for him to find the back of the net.
**Austria vs. Türkiye** This game might not feature the biggest names, but it has the potential to be the most entertaining tie of the Round of 16. Both sides are fearless and believe they can win, and with brilliant coaching from Ralf Rangnick (Austria) and Vincenzo Montella (Türkiye), it has all the makings of a classic encounter. The prospect of a quarter-final tie against either Romania or an underwhelming Dutch side gives both teams confidence that they can go as far as the semis if they win here. That said, our online betting community is leaning towards a win for Austria. They’ve been one of the biggest overachievers in this tournament, despite lacking star power and being without their captain, David Alaba. Topping a group that includes France and the Netherlands is a remarkable achievement that will be remembered for years. Türkiye may have also won 6 points, but they’ve been inconsistent throughout the group stage. With the absence of captain Hakan Calhanoglu and center-back Samet Akaydin, both serving one-game suspensions, they face an even bigger test than. Also, just three months ago, Austria defeated Türkiye 6-1 in a friendly, with Michael Gregoritsch scoring a hat-trick. We believe he’ll get on the scoresheet in this game, and BetKing has the best odds for that.
**Germany vs. Denmark** Germany has all the advantages heading into this Round of 16 tie. They finished with 7 points in Group A, have Jamal Musiala, arguably the Young Player of the Tournament, and, as hosts, they have the power of the home fans behind them. The biggest question for Head Coach Julian Nagelsmann is how to use Niclas Füllkrug. Füllkrug has scored 13 goals in just 19 international appearances, including four goals in six major tournament appearances for Germany, all as a substitute. The dilemma is whether to stick with Kai Havertz as the starter or give Füllkrug his first start of the tournament. Arguments can be made for both, but with this game being played at the Signal Iduna Park, there’s no better time for the Dortmund striker to get a well-earned start. Denmark has lost all five of their previous European Championship matches against host nations, including one against Germany in the 1988 group stage. This isn’t great news for them heading into this game, especially since they were far from convincing in the group stage, drawing all 3 games and scoring just two goals. The one bright spot for the Danes is Christian Eriksen, who they’ll heavily rely on. The Manchester United midfielder was named Man of the Match twice in their three games and was directly involved in 55% of Denmark’s 42 shots, attempting 10 and creating 13 chances in Group C. He is the first Dane to register both 10+ shots and 10+ chances created at a single edition of a major tournament (World Cup/Euros). Still, we believe the Germans have more than enough quality to win this comfortably.
**Spain vs. Georgia** Georgia has just a 6% chance of winning this game, which is understandable. This is their first ever international tournament at the senior level, and they’re facing the only team to win all 3 of their group stage games. But victory for La Roja won’t come easy. Georgia’s Georges Mikautadze leads the tournament in goals scored (3), while Giorgi Mamardashvili has been outstanding in goal, leading the Euros in most goals prevented (3.1) and most saves per 90 minutes (8.0). The Valencia man’s incredible display against Czechia, where he faced 12 shots, was one for the history books, and we expect him to be in top form against a Spain side he’s familiar with. Spain seems to finally be breaking free of the tiki-taka style under Luis de la Fuente, which is a good thing. With an average possession of 54.4% in the group stage, they rank 10th in this tournament—a rather unusual spot for them, as they usually top such lists. While they’ve been very effective in attack with their fine blend of youth and experience, it’s their defense that has been truly impressive. They have yet to concede a goal in this tournament, which is surprising given they were in the Group of Death. A standout performer is Marc Cucurella, who has carried over his end-of-season form at Chelsea to the national team. Cucurella has won 17 out of 22 individual duels at EURO 2024, with a 77% success rate, the highest of any defender in the group stage (min. 20 duels). Georgia has had an amazing tournament, but we firmly believe it ends here.
**France vs. Belgium** France hardly looks good in the group stages of international tournaments. They’re known to be slow starters, and we’ve come to accept that. However, a Matchday 3 draw against an already eliminated Poland, which pushed them into the tougher half of the bracket, raised some eyebrows. Belgium faces a similar issue. Finishing second in Group E behind Romania means a tougher knockout phase for them. Fans weren’t happy, and they made their frustration known. After their Matchday 3 draw with Ukraine, when the Belgian players went over to thank the fans, they were met with boos, and captain Kevin De Bruyne had to tell his teammates to head straight for the tunnel. Ordinarily, a match like this should guarantee goals, but these are the two most wasteful teams in the tournament so far. Belgium has the lowest conversion rate in front of goal (6.1%) of all 24 teams, followed closely by France at 6.7%. While the Euro 2024 Qualifiers saw Romelu Lukaku and Kylian Mbappé combine for 23 goals, they only have one goal between them in this tournament—a penalty by Mbappé. A huge let down. That said, we expect France to have a slight edge, as they usually come alive in the knockout stages. They also have a better head-to-head record against Belgium, having won all four of their previous matches at major tournaments, scoring 13 goals and conceding just 3. We don’t expect many goals, but France should just about edge it.
**Portugal vs. Slovenia** A heavily rotated Portugal side was beaten by Georgia on Matchday 3, which will likely motivate them to get back in the win column. While they had already secured qualification, they still wanted to win, evident in Cristiano Ronaldo’s frustration when he was taken off. The Portuguese captain has yet to score in this tournament and having set the record for most Euro tournaments played (6), he’ll be eager to become the tournament’s oldest scorer—a record his former Real Madrid teammate Luka Modrić just set. We expect Portugal to advance. With 5.59xG, they lead the tournament in expected goals without penalties. They haven’t lost back-to-back competitive games since 2008, and with players like Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Pepe, and Rúben Dias returning to the starting lineup, we expect them to win this. However, caution is advised. Slovenia is in the knockout rounds of a major international tournament for the first time in their history and will be full of confidence. Also, when these teams met in March, Slovenia won 2-0, thanks to late goals from midfielders Adam Gnezda Čerin and Timi Max Elšnik.
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