The Premier League Top Scorers for 2022/23 In Erling Haaland’s first year in the English Premier League, the Norwegian striker wasted little time in reminding the world of his unique talents. Last season, he scored a staggering 52 goals and recorded 9 assists in 53 appearances for the Cityzens. Worryingly for Manchester City’s opponents, there’s still more to come according to Haaland himself. Speaking to Thierry Henry after the UCL final win over Inter Milan when the Arsenal legend shared tips on how best to improve, Haaland said: “I agree – don’t forget I'm 22. Think back to when you lot were 22. There’s so much that you are going to learn. From when I signed from Dortmund to now there’s such a big difference from so many things. From how I think after games, how I think before games, how I motivate myself, how I speak to others. You get experience through people and on the pitch. I agree - I can develop so much more.” How much better do you think he can get this season?
Looking at the top ten scorers last season, something is instantly noticeable: with the exception of Mo Salah and Ollie Watkins, they all overperformed their xG. So how can we determine who is most likely to be the highest goalscorer this season? First, we break down the top five contenders individually. N.B: Ivan Toney’s lengthy ban means he’s not going to repeat last season’s exploits, so we’ll leave him out, along with Callum Wilson who will be competing for minutes with Alexander Isak. Erling Haaland: The Norwegian had an incredible debut season for Manchester City. A record-breaking season attests to that with Haaland scoring more goals (36) than league appearances (35). The Premier League Player of the Season winner also scored 52 goals in all competitions which were enough to lead City to a third successive league title and a historic treble-winning season. Naturally, he’s the favourite to win the Golden Boot again this season. The 23-year-old had an xG of 28.66 last season, outperforming that by a staggering 7.34. The Sky Blues created 103 big chances last season, the joint-best in the division, and you can expect the chances to keep coming for him this season. If he keeps burying them at a comparative or better rate, he’ll win another golden boot easily.
Harry Kane: The future of the English captain is uncertain due to speculation about a potential move to Bayern Munich and the German Bundesliga. Despite being known for being the toughest negotiator in the game, Spurs chairman Daniel Levy looks poised to let his captain leave this summer. Kane has been a consistent elite performer in the top flight, and last season was no exception. Despite Spurs’ struggles last season, Kane scored 30 EPL goals with an xG of 21.46, an overperformance of 8.54. If he stays, he can count on improved service from midfield due to the arrival of James Maddison from Leicester City. The presence of a new manager at Spurs; Ange Postecoglou could also improve the clubs fortunes in attack and defense. If Spurs somehow manage to keep Kane this season, he will be the best bet to give Haaland a run for his money.
Mohamed Salah: Scoring 19 league goals in your joint-worst season tells you just how good Mo’ Salah is. Liverpool had a disappointing 2022/23 campaign but are keen on bouncing back this season. If that happens, and they challenge for the title, you can be certain of Salah being the main man for the Merseyside club as always. The Egyptian loves to break records, and surely has an eye on being the joint Golden Boot winner as he is just one off record holder Thierry Henry who has four of them. With James Milner now off to Brighton, Salah is now the unquestioned #1 penalty taker at the club too. The arrivals of Alexis MacAllister and Dominik Szoboszlai along with a rejuvenated Trent Alexander-Arnold who has just been named Liverpool vice captain also bodes well for the quality of chances coming Salah’s way this season.
Marcus Rashford: Something special is set to happen at Old Trafford and you can see the signs if you know what to look for. We do not know for sure when, but under Erik ten Hag, the Red Devils look ready to return to past glories. Last season, Marcus Rashford netted 17 Premier League goals from an xG of 15.47 and surely will be looking to score at least 20 goals this season. Despite the now-confirmed arrival of Rasmus Højlund, Rashford will be the main man next season. As long as he stays fit, he will be one of the best players in the English Premier League next season.
Gabriel Martinelli: It’s a new day over at Arsenal. After signing Kai Havertz, Declan Rice and Jurrien Timber, the Gunners look well-equipped to challenge Man City for the Premier League title they lost to them last season in such heartbreaking fashion. The most reliable source of goals for the Gunners remains their young Brazilian wide forward who scored 15 goals last season. Gabriel Jesus is a good striker but he’s not the most clinical finisher. The flexibility of Mikel Arteta’s tactics means that his players are more fluid than most, leading to situations where Gabriel Jesus is out on the touchline or deep in midfield. In situations like that, Martinelli can benefit from using his frequent lung-bursting runs into the box from out wide to take advantage of the space left by Gabriel Jesus’s decoy runs. Is it likely? Maybe, maybe not. But at odds of 80, it’s worth a punt.
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