The run-in period is the business end of any league season - the last stretch where every point gained or lost can significantly impact a team’s position. For those who follow online sports betting, it’s also when the markets get genuinely interesting, with best odds shifting almost daily as the picture sharpens.
Over the years, there have been teams who made their name by coming alive in the run-in, and no team in recent history has mastered this art more than Manchester City. As someone on Twitter/X humorously put it, “once matchday 30 reach like this, na that time De Bruyne dey recover from injury. Gundogan go come pick form, Foden sef go dey score brace.” That’s the Man City we know.
In fact, one such improbable comeback came against Arsenal in the 2022/23 season. With 9 games left, the Gunners held an 8-point lead over Guardiola’s men. A historic collapse - which included three consecutive draws and two losses - saw Arsenal finish the season five points behind. When you search the EPL past winners list, City’s name appears six times in the last thirteen years. Arsenal’s? Zero. That ability to come alive in the run-in is the difference.
Things look similar now but feel different. Arsenal sit seven points clear with eight games to go, and Manchester City - with a game in hand - are the only realistic challengers. So let’s break it down: fixture difficulty, form, the distraction of other competitions, the manager factor, and the sheer weight of history.
The Standings: What We’re Working With
City need to make up seven points on the Gunners - essentially winning all their remaining games while Arsenal drop points at least twice. Straightforward? Probably not. Impossible? With Pep Guardiola involved, never say never.
Though some early signs suggest even Pep himself knows this squad may not have what it takes to mount a comeback like his previous ones. Two days before the FA Cup tie with Newcastle, he said: “I’m sure next season will be better. I’m pretty sure.” Some see this as mind games to put the pressure to win on Arsenal. I think he’s being truthful; they’re simply not as good or as healthy as the previous title-winning Man City squads.
Fixture Analysis: Who Has the Harder Run-In?
This is where the race gets interesting. Neither side has a clean run to the finish line, but the nature of the challenges they face is very different.
Remaining EPL Fixtures
Arsenal | Manchester City |
Bournemouth (H) | Chelsea (A) |
Manchester City (A) | Arsenal (H) |
Newcastle United (H) | Burnley (A) |
Fulham (H) | Everton (A) |
West Ham United (A) | Brentford (H) |
Burnley (H) | Bournemouth (A) |
Crystal Palace (A) | Aston Villa (H) |
Crystal Palace (H) ** |
** Outstanding fixture, date not announced yet.
Arsenal’s Remaining Fixtures
The Gunners couldn’t have asked for a better run-in. Of their remaining eight games, five are at the Emirates, where they’ve won 11 of 14 this season, scoring 33 and conceding just 9. The standout fixture is the trip to Man City on April 19 - a game that could decide the title either way. Beyond that, the most likely drop points come from Newcastle at home and Crystal Palace away on the final day.
Everton, Fulham, and Bournemouth are solid mid-table sides who won’t roll over. West Ham and Burnley are in the relegation zone and desperate, which historically makes them dangerous rather than easy.
Manchester City’s Remaining Fixtures
City’s fixtures look tougher, with five of their remaining nine games on the road. This season, four of their five league losses have come away from home. Their away form currently mirrors Everton’s - not exactly the benchmark you want when chasing a title. No disrespect to David Moyes, of course.
Chelsea away is a genuinely tough game, and the home fixture against Aston Villa on the final day is no gimme either. The centrepiece remains the home game against Arsenal - a must-win if City are to have any realistic hope. Brentford, too, are worth watching: City already dropped points at the Brentford Community Stadium this season, and the reverse fixture at the Etihad is no formality.
Recent Form: Who’s Hot, Who’s Not?
Arsenal’s recent run in the last ten games (7W, 2L, 1D) has been impressive, with wins over Tottenham (4-1), Chelsea (2-1), Brighton (1-0), a 4-0 thumping at Leeds and a last-gasp win in the UCL away at Sporting Lisbon. The only blemishes have been draws at Brentford and Wolves - both away, a surprising 3-2 home defeat to Manchester United in January , the 2-0 loss to City in the Carabao Cup Final, and of course, the surprise loss to Southampton in the FA Cup.
Man City has been building momentum steadily. After a rocky start to 2026, they’ve found their footing with wins over Liverpool, Wolves, Fulham (3-0), Newcastle, and Leeds. That said, they drew 2-2 at home to struggling Nottingham Forest and also dropped points when they hosted West Ham at the Etihad, two draws Guardiola could rue come May.
On form, Arsenal is the more consistent side and has completely ditched the idea of “beautiful football” in favour of winning by any means necessary. They haven’t won the league in 22 years - who cares about style points? But City have a habit of peaking in the spring, and Guardiola’s men save their best football for when the pressure is highest and right now, they're looking pretty good.
The Distraction Factor: Cups and Champions League
Just before the international break, Manchester City got the better of Arsenal in the EFL Cup final, and that could turn out to be a big psychological edge for the run-in.
After being knocked out of the UEFA Champions League by Real Madrid, it was exactly the kind of boost Pep Guardiola and his side needed. That result kept City alive in three competitions, with Arsenal chasing a league and UCL double, while Guardiola has his sights set on another domestic treble.
Arsenal: Double or Nothing?
Arsenal are strongly positioned to qualify for the UCL semifinals after taking a late 1-goal lead on Tuesday in what many think is the the most favourable path to the Champions League final in Budapest. Keeping tabs on Champions League fixtures alongside domestic commitments is the bet wizard’s challenge - and Arteta’s too. Rotation will be key with their long injury list, and Arsenal’s depth will be needed as the North London side tries to claim a double after a long drought.
Manchester City: Guardiola’s Quest For A Second Domestic Treble
If Pep Guardiola is going to add to his EFL Cup this season, he’s going to do it the hard way. While they may be out of the Champions League, City’s schedule over the next fortnight is genuinely brutal. After facing Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and then hosting Arsenal in the Premier League, City will have to travel to Burnley and then host Southampton in the FA Cup semifinal. Even for a Guardiola side, famed for their rotation and squad depth, the fixture pile-up is immense. Something may give.
The Manager Factor: Master vs. Apprentice
Mikel Arteta has never won a league title as a manager, coming agonizingly close in each of the last three seasons. For a club that last lifted the trophy in 2004, the wait feels both eternal and inevitable. Pep Guardiola, on the other hand, has won the Premier League six times - he knows what a title run-in feels like, and his record in must-win scenarios is almost unparalleled. Exhibit 236: the EFL Cup Final three weeks ago.
But Arteta is closer than ever. Arsenal’s Champions League campaign has been a revelation (ten wins and a draw from eleven games), and the resilience of this squad is clearly a product of his culture. And crucially: Guardiola’s City are nine points behind in the EPL. Even the legendary Catalan cannot conjure points from thin air.
The History: Arsenal’s Title Trauma vs City’s Muscle Memory
Arsenal have been here before, and it has not ended well. Three consecutive runner-up finishes. An eight-point lead surrendered in 2022/23. The psychological weight of that is real, even if the players would never admit it.
Manchester City, meanwhile, have developed an almost eerie ability to win the league in the final weeks. The Agueroooo moment of 2012 is the most famous example, but it reflects a broader cultural blueprint: stay close enough, and trust that the other side cracks. City need Arsenal to crack again. History says it’s possible, but form and the points table say it’s unlikely.
Verdict: Arsenal to Win the Title, But Brace for a Nervous Finish
The nine-point gap is significant. Even if City win every game from here, Arsenal need only match them in the vast majority of fixtures - and their schedule is more forgiving from a congestion standpoint. The April 19 showdown at the Etihad is the pivotal fixture. A City win makes it a six-point race and a pulsating finale. A draw or Arsenal win effectively ends it.
There will be wobbles for the Gunners. There always are. The Mansfield scare and the subsequent Southampton loss was a reminder that even the best squads can look toothless in rotation mode, and Champions League fatigue could yet cost them a draw against Bournemouth, Newcastle or Palace. Our bet of the day on April 19, if you’re looking for one: draw or Arsenal, and watch the title market move the moment the final whistle blows.
Arsenal are champions-elect. Nine points with eight to play, a favourable fixture list, a squad playing with genuine confidence, and a Champions League draw that - if they get past Sporting CP - offers a realistic path to the UCL final without facing Bayern, Liverpool, PSG, or Madrid. The stars are as aligned as they’ve been since Wenger’s Invincibles.
This is the Gunners' year. It has to be.