The UEFA Europa League and Conference League Round of 16 continues this week with several thrilling second-leg matches. AS Roma and Liverpool are both on the cusp of quarterfinal qualification after convincing first-leg victories and should be able to enjoy straightforward games tomorrow. However, Bayer Leverkusen, West Ham, Aston Villa, and Ajax have it all to play for. As usual, we have previewed these games and provided expert betting tips to boost your chances of success. Without further ado… **West Ham vs Freiburg** After fighting back from 2-0 down to snatch a 2-2 draw against Burnley, West Ham boss David Moyes will be hoping his team can maintain that goalscoring momentum as they aim to overturn a 1-0 deficit against Freiburg in the UEFA Europa League Round of 16 tie. The Hammers will be well aware of how difficult this task will be, but with 13 wins from their last 16 home matches in Europe, playing in front of home support should fill them with confidence. Additionally, history favors them, as they have advanced in five out of six instances where they lost the first leg away from home. Despite last weekend’s 2-1 win over Bochum, Freiburg remain seven points off European qualification in the Bundesliga, which means winning the Europa League might be their best chance of returning to Europe next season. The visitors hold a 1-0 lead from the first leg but will know that this tie is by no means over, especially away from home where they have won just 2 of their last 8 games. **Key stat -** West Ham have conceded 10 goals in their last 3 home matches. **Verdict:** These sides met twice in the group stage with West Ham claiming victory on both occasions and with Hammers star man Lucas Paqueta back and firing, our bet of the day is for West Ham to turn the tie around.
**Bayer Leverkusen vs Qarabag** Xabi Alonso’s men suffered a huge scare during the first leg of their UEFA Europa League Round of 16 game against with Qarabag last week, finding themselves 2-0 down at the break before snatching a 92nd-minute goal to level the tie. After a routine 2-0 victory over ten-man Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga at the weekend, they remain the only unbeaten side in Europe’s top-five leagues. Their attention will now shift back to Europe, as Alonso looks to improve on than last season and reach the final of the UEL. A return to the Bay Arena could be the wind in their sails, as they’ve won each of their last four matches in all competitions here, while their three home group stage matches in the competition ended in big wins, scoring at least 4 goals in each game. All of this means that tomorrow’s game could be an uphill battle for Azerbaijani champions Qarabag, who prepared for this clash with a 3-1 win over Zira at the weekend. That victory will have further boosted morale ahead of the trip to Germany, and although they gave up a two-goal lead in the first leg, they will take great pride in their performance against one of Europe’s best sides this season. **Key stat -** Qarabag are the only side in this season’s competition to both score and concede 15+ goals. **Verdict:** Leverkusen are too strong at home, and the visitors have a very porous defence, one that could be breached far too easily. Our bet prediction is a home win for Alonso’s men and there should be a few goals too.
**Brighton vs AS Roma** Roberto De Zerbi’s Brighton must make history if they’re to progress to the quarter-finals, as no team has ever overturned a four-goal first-leg deficit in the Europa League. There is no sugarcoating this, their task here is enormous, and you have to go back to the end of April 2023 for the last time they won a home fixture by at least four clear goals (on that occasion, they beat Wolves 6-0). Roma drew 2-2 with Fiorentina on Sunday, extending their unbeaten run to seven matches (W5, D2) in all competitions, so they will head to the Amex Stadium in good spirits. However, despite their recent success, they would do well to approach the game with caution, having faced disappointment on English soil in the past. They beat Manchester United 3-2 at home but lost 6-2 away in this competition in 2020/21 and lost to Liverpool on aggregate in the Champions League despite winning their home game. **Key stat -** Paulo Dybala has 5 goals in his last 4 games for Roma. **Verdict:** After the first-leg humiliation, we expect Brighton to play for pride, as a comeback against Danielle De Rossi’s men is highly unlikely. Our prediction for this clash is for both teams to score and Paolo Dybala to score at least one goal.
**Liverpool vs Sparta Prague** Liverpool are in a commanding position ahead of their second leg Round-of-16 tie against Sparta Prague at Anfield. The Reds won 5-1 last week and you would be the bravest man in the world to bet against them at home, where they haven’t lost a single game all season. Outgoing manager, Jurgen Klopp will be pleased with the comfortable lead, as it gives him the chance to rest key players or provide valuable minutes to those returning from injuries. He might even choose to field promising young talents, potentially benefiting the team in the long run. This is the only major competition Klopp hasn’t won during his tenure at Liverpool, but regardless of his selection choices, they will be expected to progress to the quarterfinals. In their ten winless away games against English clubs (D2, L8), Sparta have only scored four times. They’ll need to replicate that just to stay competitive. They also suffered a heavy 4-0 defeat to Viktoria Plzen at the weekend, further denting their confidence ahead of this mammoth clash. **Key stat –** Both teams have scored in nine out of Liverpool’s last ten home games. **Verdict:** Even if Klopp decides to field a team of academy graduates, we still expect Liverpool to be too strong at home. Our bet prediction here is a big win for the Reds. Mohamed Salah is yet to start a game for Liverpool in 2024 and this could be a chance to build his fitness. Take advantage of the best tips around by backing the Egyptian to add to his 19 goals this season.
**Aston Villa vs Ajax** Aston Villa and Ajax played out a dull 0-0 draw in Amsterdam last week, setting up a decisive clash to secure a spot in the UEFA Europa Conference League quarter-finals. Villa come into the contest with their confidence bruised after enduring a 4-0 demolition at the hands of Tottenham at the weekend, the joint-heaviest home defeat of Unai Emery’s career. That defeat further highlighted Villa’s worrying home form, as they have now suffered defeat in 4 of the last 5 games at Villa Park. Before this, they had only lost one of their previous 15 home competitive games this season. However, their solid home European record, with just one loss in their last seven matches (W5, D1) could provide a much-needed boost. Ajax also struggled at the weekend, dropping points in a 2-2 home draw with mid-table side Fortuna Sittard. It’s now just two wins in nine games for the four-time European champions who continue to look like a shadow of the great Ajax sides that have come before them. The Eredivisie giants have struggled on English shores in recent years, and you’d have to go back to their 2018/19 Champions League semi-final first-leg win at Tottenham (1-0) for their last success on English soil, with all four games away to Premier League sides since ending in defeat. **Key stat -** Ollie Watkins has scored 5 goals in his last 5 games for Aston Villa **Verdict:** Ajax have failed to keep a clean sheet on the road in over six months, and their wretched record in England makes it hard to bet against Villa. Emery’s men may be in rough form, but our football prediction for tomorrow is a narrow Villa win, powered by Watkins’ goals.
**Rangers vs Benfica** After a thrilling 2-2 draw in the first leg, Rangers and Benfica do battle once more with a place in the quarter-finals of the UEFA Europa League up for grabs. Rangers are in excellent form, having lost just one of their last 14 outings in all competitions (W12, D1), and will be roared on by an Ibrox crowd who will dare to dream of qualification against a European giant. Historically, they have never lost to Portuguese opposition at home (W8, D3), yet their record at this stage is far from perfect, progressing just once from four previous last-16 ties. That stands in stark contrast to opponents Benfica, who’ve won all of their five appearances at this stage of the Europa League. And while they were left disappointed not to win the home leg last Thursday, they will feel confident of setting things right this time. Roger Schmidt’s men defeated Estoril 3-1 at the weekend and they certainly won’t be nervous, as they have lost just 3 of their last 20 away matches on the continent. (W9, D8). **Key stat -** None of Rangers’ last 17 matches have been goalless at half-time. **Verdict:** This is a tough one to call but Rangers have shown they can hang with the big boys this season, as evidenced by their performance in the first leg. Despite Benfica being slight favourites, our bet prediction is a narrow home win for Rangers – a result that should reverberate across Europe.
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