**UFC 295** returns this Sunday at the Madison Square Garden in New York with Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira as the Main Card bout. There is much to fight for here. Prochazka, who was stripped off his light heavyweight title last year due to injury, now looks to reclaim his vacant crown against hard-hitting former middleweight champion Pereira. The latter is also looking to become a two-division champion. Interestingly, this fight was arranged by the UFC after former champion Jamahal Hill got injured and was forced to vacate the championship.
**Fighter analysis** As expected, both fighters have their own style, which could influence where this fight is won/lost. **Jiri Prochazka** Jiri Procházka possesses an unorthodox and aggressive fighting style, characterized by a fast-paced, hands-down approach that has resulted in highly entertaining bouts, leaving several opponents unconscious on the canvas. Notably, his remarkable knockouts against Volkan Oezdemir and Dominick Reyes played a pivotal role in propelling him into title contention for the first time. Procházka exhibits a potent ability to inflict damage and secure finishes against many opponents within his division. He heads into this fight with a mixed MMA record of 29-3-1, boasting a flawless 3-0 UFC record. His most recent triumph came in June 2022, where he secured a submission win over Glover Teixeira. Prochazka can trust his strikes going into this epic battle as he maintains a striking rate of 5.77 significant strikes per minute with a commendable 55% striking accuracy. On the defensive side, he absorbs 5.40 strikes per minute and holds a 40% striking defence which is a weakness considering his opponent. There’s a high chance that Poatan might take full advantage if given the chance. In terms of grappling, Prochazka has demonstrated limited proficiency in the UFC, averaging 0.38 takedowns per 15 minutes. Notably, he maintains a perfect 100% takedown accuracy and a 68% takedown defence. However, BetKing provides you with the best odds market for a Procházka win which doubles your initial stake.
**Alex Pereira** Alex Pereira is a highly skilled kickboxer, who has seamlessly adapted his style to excel in mixed martial arts, as evidenced by his defeat of Israel Adesanya in 2022. Pereira stands out as one of the most formidable, technically proficient, and impactful strikers in the current landscape of the sport. When he’s facing off against opponents willing to engage in stand-up exchanges, Pereira has a clear advantage, which Prochazka will be heedful of. Having knocked out Israel Adesanya in the fifth round to win the bantamweight title at UFC 281 before losing the rematch, Pereira beat former champion Jan Blachowicz by split decision in July in his 205-pound debut and has accumulated an 8-2 record since then. Credit must be given to him for the improvements he has made in grappling tie-ups and getups, a testament to his collaboration with former champion, Teixeira. However, Pereira is in a phase where he strives to strike a balance between his proficiency in striking and grappling defence. This means that Prochazka might be best served by going with an aggressive approach that would prove advantageous in exploiting the vulnerabilities in Pereira's overall defensive game. Conclusion Prochazka loves a good brawl, but that might not be smart this time. He's used to taking hits to land his own, but Pereira is a striking wizard and trading strikes with him is a bad idea. Plus, Pereira is better at dodging hits than his Czech opposition, who can be somewhat erratic with his strikes. Winning is almost certain to be determined by thin margins but if there is any other factor to consider beyond the abilities of the fighters, it has to be how well Prochazka has managed to recover from the shoulder surgery he underwent after sustaining a serious injury in his last fight. If he has not healed and Pereira discovers that early, this could be a quick one.
**Predictions:** After considering the strength and weaknesses of both fighters, style, form, conditions and what is at stake, it is a tight call, but we think Pereira is the slight favourite to edge this one. The fight is also expected to extend beyond the first round.
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